By Donald P. Merwin
Need a job? Try construction.
As the country's economy grows, positions in the building and remodeling industry remain unfilled. Demand for construction workers is high, thanks to the long-running boom in the building industry. At the same time, not enough young people are choosing a career in the trades.
Skilled workers, in particular, are considered to be in short supply by many builders and remodelers – although the situation is not as critical as it was a few years ago. Shortages of carpenters, electricians, plumbers and painters, among other tradesmen, peaked in 2000, eased for a while, then started to climb again this year, according to a survey of construction contractors by the Builders' Economic Council and prepared by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Home building and remodeling have been using more workers, says Michael Carliner, vice president-economics for NAHB, but the shortages have not been as critical because the competition for workers from industry and non-residential construction has not been as great. "As the other industries revive," he says, "we expect more shortages of skilled workers in the future."
Rough or framing carpenters were in shortest supply in early 2000. At that time 34 percent of survey respondents believed the situation was serious, while another 51 percent thought there were at least some shortages. Those who perceived a serious shortage of rough carpenters declined to 5 percent of respondents in 2002. But the figure rose to 13 percent for rough carpenters by last October; 18 percent reported a serious shortage of finish carpenters at the same time. The percentages of respondents who saw mildly short supplies of rough and finish carpenters were 47 percent and 39 percent, respectively.
The other trades were not as bad off, according to the NAHB study:
- Shortages of electricians peaked in early 2000, when 59 percent of respondents said that the shortage was either serious or mild. By 2002, that number dropped to 29 percent, but since then, it has risen to 35 percent.
- Plumber shortages also peaked in 2000, with 62 percent of respondents noting a serious or mild shortage. The figure dipped to 28 percent in 2002, then rose to 40 percent by October 2004.
- The share of respondents who noticed shortages of painters ranged from 55 percent in early 2000 to 30 percent in 2002. The percentage stayed relatively flat — just over 30 percent — in the latest study.
Wages follow supply-demand
The cost for skilled labor has tended to follow supply-and-demand trends. In October, for example, 68 percent of survey respondents said carpenters' wages were either somewhat or significantly higher. That number compares with more than 80 percent who noted higher wages in the worst shortage year of 2000.
Roughly the same wage/shortage relationship has held true for painters. The number of respondents noting higher painter wages peaked in 2000 at 72 percent and declined to 58 percent by last October.
However, wages for electricians and plumbers have been less volatile. The cost for plumbers was regarded as either significantly or somewhat higher by 73 percent of respondents in 2000; in October 2004, 65 percent still reported the same perception. The cost for electricians was perceived as higher by 71 percent of contractors surveyed in 2000; that number slipped only three percentage points in the October study.
Employment numbers up – just not enough
Despite shortages, total employment in the construction industry continues to increase. In fact, the long-term outlook for construction employment appears quite good. Statistics from the Bureau of Labor project a 15 percent increase in construction employment for the decade from 2002 to 2012.
During this period, carpenters will see their numbers swell to 1.33 million from 1.2 million, a 10.1 percent increase. But in the same period there will be 319,000 job openings for carpenters due to growth and replacements. The end result: 179,000 job openings that will not be filled.
The number of electricians will rise to 814,000 from 659,000 – an increase of 23.4 percent increase or 155,000 new electricians. But 285,000 job openings will be created, leaving a shortfall of 130,000. Painters and paper hangers will be up 11.4 percent, to 521,000 from 468,000, but 124,000 job openings will be creating, leaving a shortfall of 71,000.
Other trades are projected for similar employment gains and projected shortages during the decade:
- The number of drywall installers and tapers will jump from 176,000 to 214,000, but there also will be 76,000 new job openings, leaving a shortfall of 38,000.
- Carpet installers will lay down a good base for future with an increase from 82,000 to 96,000 in their ranks, but almost half (13,000) of a projected 27,000 new jobs for carpet installers still will remain unfilled.
- Floor layers will add 4,000 new members to their trade (from 31,000 to 35,000), but with 9,000 new jobs, general contractors will have to stretch to fill the additional 5,000 slots.
- Tile and marble setters: up from 33,000 to 42,000, resulting in 14,000 new jobs and a shortfall of 5,000.
- Glaziers: up from 49,000 to 57,000, but more than half of 19,000 new jobs – a whopping 11,000 – will remain empty.
- Plasterers and stucco masons: up from 59,000 to 67,000, but also with 19,000 new jobs and a shortfall of 11,000.
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